>>242884>Surveys that are based on objective questions and sample sizes in the 10k+ range?
Well it sounds like there were more questions than that on the survey, i only read a little so far but it sounds like it was more than "did you vote for or against brexit" to me. I would like to see the actual questioneer, maybe its in there and i havent gotten to it yet.
But yes, considering 33 million people took part in the vote, i would call 10k a small sample size. Its only 0.03% of people who actually took part in the vote. I wouldnt say you could draw any serious conclusions based on a survey of 0.03% of participants, which is why stuff like this always tends to be wrong. If survays like this worked, and you could draw actual data of how people think and feel from them, then Hillary would be president of the US and the UK would have overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU, since surveys like this projected that to happen.
>How likely is it that people lie about whether they have a job or a higher education?
Decently likely, but i would assume they would lie toward the positive end of things if they did. I dont think enough people would lie about something like that to really throw off the results though.
>I think it would be more likely that this kind of survey results in more false positives because of the stigma of voting leave. This is of course my liberal ass giving my opinion.
No, you are 100% right on this. You need to take into account the social stigma of something, especially something like this, when considering a survey like this. For months after the vote, the news was dominated with pundits asking "what went wrong
" and front page articles talking about how only stupid people voted to leave, and a lot of doom and gloom. I mean, just searching for "how many people voted in brexit" brought up a bunch of articles about "Why people want to change their vote" and "Why people regret their vote for brexit" and my favorite "Show this chart to anyone who thinks brexit is 'the will of the people'!". Then you get a phone call from a stranger asking you how you voted, its very likely that someone would recast their vote on the fly in that situation to save face.
I mean, the survey results dont match the actual referendum by almost 10%... (43% said they voted to leave i think i read when 52% voted to leave in the actual vote). That is a huge factor that "social scientists" should understand just by their namesake. Its hard enough for people to admit to having voted for Trump, and the media blasted brexit just as hard.
Think about it this way, if you took a survey of people in Germany in 1945-46 and asked them if they voted for the Nazi Party... do you think they would have won again?
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